Turkey’s Membership Prospects: Current Pressures vs. Strategic Thinking

Dutch politician Geert Wilders warned recently in London, that should he become Prime Minister of The Netherlands, he would veto the accession of Turkey to the European Union. Should Turkey, despite his objections, become a member of the EU, he would call for The Netherlands to leave the Union. In his view, Turkey, being an Islamic country, should never be allowed to become a member of the Union, because – as he argued – its fundamental roots are Christianity and Judaism. In his interview he went as far as calling called Turkish PM Erdogan "a total freak". According to the latest polls, Mr. Geert Wilders is the leader of the 2nd largest political party in The Netherlands.

The language Mr. Wilders uses against the Islam is disobligingly inflammatory. However, his opposition to Turkish membership of the European Union seems to represent main stream thinking. Leaders of several EU member states openly speak about their countries' opposition to Turkey joining the EU. Public opinion polls in many EU countries and the emergence of Mr. Wilders clearly demonstrate that governments have reasons to worry about the support of their citizens for Turkish membership.

This European attitude is regrettable, and it results in a policy that at best lacks political vision, or worse, a policy that might have detrimental consequences for Europe’s development.

It is regrettable first of all, because it indicates that the number of European citizens, who turn their backs on the very values the European Union was built upon, is increasing. The consensus since World War II, that European integration is based on values of democracy, rule of law, personal liberties - including the freedom of religion -, market economy, solidarity, and tolerance seems to have weakened. The enthusiasm to reunify Europe based on these values is being replaced by not only by fatigue but also by intolerance.
Secondly, a policy that keeps Turkey out is anything but helpful. Even those European Union citizens arguing against Turkish accession on the ground that Turkey is an Islamic country, most probably want Turkey to be a democratic, and secular state, where human rights are respected and rule of law prevails. Indeed, it is in Europe’s best interest to have the highest possible democratic standards in its neighbouring countries, including Turkey.

Europe can influence democratic development only, if its criticism and recommendations are credibly supporting Turkish ambitions and also perceived by the Turkish public as such. If messages from the EU are seen as a means to wreck Turkish membership, the EU will lose its leverage to help guide Turkey towards democratization. Also, credible signals from the EU that membership can become a reality would provide substantial support to those in Turkey who combat for a further separation between state and religion, for a better judicial system, for granting more rights to ethnic and religious minorities and for finding an acceptable solution to Northern Cyprus.

Thirdly, excluding Turkey may have very dangerous consequences for Europe’s long term security.

Since 9/11, a widely shared consensus prevails on the major security challenges. One of the top threats is terrorism linked to radical Islam. Leaders of radical Islamist groups preach about the West being the enemy of Islam and Muslim people. Seen from their point of view there is a rationale to their argument. They feel that they loose the influence they enjoyed over their believers for centuries due to secularisation. Indeed, more and more women in Teheran wear mini-skirts and tight t-shirts under their chador. In their private homes they behave exactly as women in Paris, New York or Budapest do. Just like in our European history, the clergy looses its political and social influence on their societies. Most religious leaders probably regret but accept these developments. But there are also those who cannot accept this phenomenon. Their strategy is to present Western lifestyle and, as a consequence the West itself, as the biggest threat to Muslim religion. As a result, millions of disconcerted people who follow their teaching, hate Europe and America to such an extend that many of them are ready to sacrifice themselves as terrorists in what they believe is a holy war against all the evil of the modern western society.

However, the vast, but mainly silent majority, of Muslims do not think that Europe and America are their foes. But what do they see, hear and read about us? They hear what they are told by their Mullahs, and they hear people like Geert Wilders. From main stream European leaders they do not hear any inflammatory language, but they do hear that Europeans do not want them. For millions this message is simple: it does not matter what they do, what they think, because nevertheless they are treated as aliens, remote, non-desired people.

A substantial part of Turkish population still wants to see its country in the EU, but due to disappointing messages from the EU, this support is decreasing. Experiences in the countries that recently joined the EU show that public sentiment towards the EU is largely influenced by the perceived EU commitment towards them. In other words, the EU itself contributes to the growing frustration in Turkey about the EU.
The European Union did promise membership to Turkey once it meets membership criteria. By backtracking, the European Union looses credibility. Perhaps even worse, the European Union will disprove its stated principle that it is based on values of democracy, human rights and rule of law and market economy, and that it is not a religious club. Furthermore, the EU undermines beliefs that democracy prevails over religious differences, unwittingly helping those who want the West be seen as the enemy.

Could anything be more important at the beginning of the 21st century, than proving to millions of Muslims all over the world that we are connected by commonly shared values and that differences in religion and in culture do not separate us? We have an enormous responsibility to support moderate and democratic forces in those states where Islam is the main religion.

Notwithstanding its shortcomings, Turkey is a strong and proven secular democratic constitutional republic since 1922, a state believing in an ongoing process of development and democratisation. The vast majority of its citizens are moderate and secular Muslims who like Europe. The EU, demonstrating friendship to democratic Muslims can increase this support. On the contrary, an unfriendly and rejecting EU will cause frustration and anger. Such frustration would be stemming from a feeling that “we are not wanted”, could easily lead to radicalisation. Should a perception that “we are foes” spread among Muslim people, the EU would face a security challenge incomparable what it faces today.
In the meantime, in January this year, the Council of Europe – the progenitor of the European Union – gave a lesson to the rest of Europe. It’s Parliamentary Assembly elected Mr. Mevlüt Çavuşoglu, a Turkish MP from the Muslim AKA Party as its President. Mr. Çavuşoglu, being the first Turk to hold such a high office in European history, already made history with his election. Now, as President he needs to prove that he can serve overall European interests, therewith helping those who advocate Turkey’s accession to the EU.

What can EU leaders do to address these challenges? Can we ask them to act against the will of their voters, especially now in the after-crisis environment, when austerity measures need to be introduced in order to cover earlier stimulus packages? No, such a demand would not be realistic.

But European leaders, being aware of their responsibility for the future of Europe and for unifying democrats belonging to different cultures and religions, should be careful in their statements vis-a-vis Turkey. Despite all possible difficulties in their constituencies at home, European leaders must at minimum make it clear that EU’s doors are not closed and past promises are and remain valid. We must prove both to ourselves and to moderate Muslims that we need each other and that we can live together in an enlarged EU. If we are unable to do so, others may be successful in proving that we have to hate each other and fight. This would be a tragic failure, and our responsibility is exactly to avoid that.

(Megjelent a Europe's World 2010. május 6-i számában:
http://www.europesworld.org/NewEnglish/Home_old/PartnerPosts/tabid/671/PostID/1394/Default.aspx)

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2010. május 6.